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How will economic l growth affect the stock market-win7codecs

hanson

How will economic L growth affect the stock market? Since – GUI Haoming Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets begin to run from the end of 1990, basically all run in the high economic growth in the background. So, every stock market fell when bullish a most common reason is the economic fundamentals back so well, the stock market fell is not normal. Here, not to mention this is normal, but to talk about a new topic: when the economy has entered a period of rapid growth, what kind of impact on the stock market will be? Authority prior to the "people’s Daily" published on the supply side reform article said, in the current global economy and domestic economic situation, China’s economy is not possible through short-term stimulus V rebound, may experience a L type growth stage. Some scholars and market analysis have similar judgment, such as the Renmin University of China and the National Development Strategy Research Institute executive president Liu Yuanchun is expected this year, the economy will continue to fall, and the emergence of signs of bottoming stabilized at the end of the year, the bottom of the current round of run lengths will continue for about a year. Guotai Junan Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Ren Zeping believes that China’s economic growth of L type will continue for three to five years. When the first half of last year’s stock market rose, the market parties are very clear, when the economic situation is not ideal, the market is mainly rely on funds to promote, but the heart still hope the real economy can quickly achieve V inversion, in order to realize the transformation from the capital city to the golden bull market performance. However, in the middle of the year we found that economic operation more difficult than expected, then the second, W hopes the economy will rebound, so despite repeated comparison, but in the end still can go on. But in the four quarter, economic growth is likely to be consolidation for a period of time, so may not be expected to change to U type. By this time, investors can still expect the economy to return to the high growth track. And to the beginning of this year, authoritative statement, Chinese economy will enter L growth, that is to say, there will be rapid growth in the future, specifically in the following 7%. No doubt, such expectations will have a big impact on the stock market. Of course, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market is not met the economic slowdown situation, sometimes even lower than 5% growth rate, but the duration is not too long. After strong measures taken by the parties concerned, the rapid growth was resumed soon. Therefore, for investors, have also been accustomed to the economic growth in the context of operation. But this 26 year background has been changed, and from now on, we have to adapt to the environment of L growth. So, what specific impact will this L growth have on the stock market? First of all, the economic growth is slowing down, if not a large-scale adjustment of industrial structure, a listed company is still dominated by traditional industries, it is hard to imagine there will be the standard sense of the big bull market. In other words, the stock market at this stage is unlikely to go out of the sharp rise in prices. There has always been a yearning for bull market, so that everyone can easily make money bull market, of course, popular. The problem is that, with the slowdown of economic growth and the contraction of the stock market leverage, the bull market theory has been discussed in the past

经济L型增长会如何影响股市?   □桂浩明   沪深股市自1990年末开始运行以来,基本上都是在经济高增长的背景下运行。所以,每到股市行情出现下跌的时候,看多的一派最常用的反击理由就是经济基本面这么好,股市跌是不正常的。   这里暂且不说上面这个是否正常的问题,而是要谈一个新的话题:当经济进入中高速增长期,对股市将会产生什么样的影响?此前《人民日报》刊发的权威人士解读供给侧改革的文章就称,在当前全球经济和国内经济形势下,我国经济不可能通过短期刺激实现V型反弹,可能会经历一个L型增长阶段。一些学者和市场分析也有类似的判断,比如中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院执行院长刘元春预计,今年经济会持续回落,并在年末出现触底趋稳的迹象,本轮底部运行的长度将持续一年左右。国泰君安证券首席宏观分析师任泽平认为,我国经济的L型增长态势会持续三到五年。   去年上半年股市大涨的时候,市场各方都很清楚,当时经济状况并不理想,行情主要是靠资金推动的,但内心还是希望实体经济能很快实现V型反转,以期实现从资金牛市向业绩牛市的转变。但是,到了年中大家发现,经济运行困难比预计要大,于是就退而求其次,希望经济能W型反弹,这样尽管反复比较多,但终究还是能够往上。可是到了四季度,眼看经济增速很可能还会再盘整一段时间,这样又不得已将预期改为U型。到这个时候,可以说投资者还是在期待经济会回到高增长轨道上。而到了今年初,权威人士表态,中国经济将进入L型增长,这就是说,未来会出现中高速增长,具体而言就是在7%以下。无疑,这样的预期,对股市会产生很大影响。   当然,沪深股市也不是没有遇到过经济增长放缓的情形,有时候增长速度甚至低于5%,但持续的时间都并不太长。在有关方面采取强力措施以后,就很快又恢复了高增长。因此,对于投资者来说,也都早已习惯了在经济高增长背景下操作。但是,这一运行了26年的背景,如今被改变了,从现在起,大家要适应L型增长的环境了。   那么,这种L型增长对股市会有什么具体影响呢?   首先,在经济增长明显放缓以后,如果没有产业结构的大规模调整,上市公司的构成仍然是以传统产业为主,那么就很难想象会出现标准意义上的大牛市。换言之,股市在现阶段不太可能走出大幅上涨行情。一直有人在怀念大牛市,让大家都能够比较轻松地赚钱的牛市,当然受欢迎。可问题在于,随着经济增长的放慢,加上股市杠杆的收缩,以往这种牛市格局已难以出现。所以,现在的投资者有必要降低对股市运行的预期,接受在某一个阶段内行情空间有限的现实。   其次,经济L型增长,是针对总量而言的,在结构上,有些传统行业可能因为去产能等因素,增长会进一步放慢,甚至负增长。而一些新兴行业,则会在国家产业政策的推动下,呈现加速发展的状态。这种局面反映到股市上,就会引发结构性行情,也就是有些行业板块会相当不错,也有些会很差。如此一来,在指数波动有限的情况下,很多个股仍然会强势上涨,但也有些会越走越弱。所以,在未来的一段时间,股市不是没有行情,而是行情走势会比较特殊,传统观念中的蓝筹股起舞,周期股王者归来的局面,恐怕难以再现。而一批规模不大但成长迅速,且题材独到,富有想象力的股票,或会异军突起。也因为这样,市场对于股市投资价值的判断标准,也会出现一定的变化。   最后,经济L型增长,对当前的沪深股市来说,很可能会推动产生行情运行的区间。由于L型本身也不是横下来后拉一条水平线,实际运行中也是会有反复的,这就不排除在增速波动时,股指也随即出现震荡。最近一段时间股市的运行,就明显与实体经济的一些统计数字变化有直接关系。因此,在短期内不能排除股市仍然有下行压力,只是空间不大。同样,上涨空间也是相对有限的。这种状况,现在大家都已经看到了,未来还会再持续。   经济增长L型是个全新的课题,投资者需要花时间去细细研究,进而逐步适应由此形成的股市新格局,在市场变化中占据主动的位置。   (作者系申万宏源证券研究所市场研究总监)THE_END 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:


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