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Multiple factors disturbance of steel prices will continue to weaken the supply side pressure Everfo-mkdv-02

hanson

Multiple factors disturbance of steel prices will continue to weaken the supply side pressure Everfount national investment contest: Irving King peep catch demon shares of Sina Financial App: Live on-line blogger to guide multiple factors disturbance of steel prices will be weaker shocks. Nanhua futures Li Xiaodong recently, the superposition of multiple factors of steel field, not the busy season, the shortage of coal, freight market rules and so on, chaotic scene, let many investors feel at a loss. At present, 7, August, a sharp rise in steel stocks to turn negative, is still one of the main contradictions in the market. Especially in the mills started are still high, did not show significant reduction under the condition that the supply side pressure Everfount October, if this part of the inventory can not be effectively decreased, market confidence will blow. Overall, the probability of the fourth quarter of rebar prices in the 2100-2400 yuan fluctuations larger. Although the Fed tightening macro environment meeting in September decided to suspend the rate hike, and lowered the interest rate in 2017, but the market believes that Yellen said "December increase the probability of a large, and not the bluff, following the U.S. economic fundamentals performance is the cause of all the problems. Recently, domestic funds also continued tight, the central bank to tighten short-term funds, control the risk of the bond market, the Shanghai interbank interest rates sharply higher overnight funds. The terminal needs to continue to weaken or tightening liquidity on asset prices will suppress the formation of. But the demand for steel is also not optimistic about the terminal. Although sales of real estate is still very hot, 1-8 month national commercial housing sales growth of 19.8%, the growth rate of percentage points to expand by more than 1-7 percentage points, and the real estate boom has been transmitted to some of the hot line and the 3 line of the city. But this is in stark contrast to the new construction, real estate growth is still rapid decline in 1-8 months, new construction area grew 12.2%, the growth rate down 1.5 percentage points compared to 1-7 months, at the month of the new construction area of growth has dropped to 3.26%. At the same time, the land acquisition area has been considered to be the leading indicators of new construction, 7, August, the land acquisition area also decline to expand, mainly because of a second tier city land supply is limited, and the 234 line of the city inventory pressure is still large, developing enthusiasm is still in the doldrums. 7, infrastructure, infrastructure investment growth over the first half of August has dropped significantly, in the local financial funds, expanding the deficit under the restriction of the subsequent infrastructure investment to the strength of the more difficult, difficult to offset the effect of real estate new start downward. The cost of lifting steel profits in compression effect of "276 working days" policy, coking coal production significantly decreased more than 10% this year, leading to the rapid rise in coking coal, coke prices, quickly raise the cost of steel. And the road transport implementation of new regulations, check the transportation overload seriously impact the short-term price hike, demand in the current downturn in the background, transportation costs can not be passed on to downstream users, undoubtedly increased the burden of mills. The research shows that the transportation costs 30-50 yuan per ton of general uplift. Weak demand, coal prices and transportation costs rise 3 combined with compression steel profits, the current production of rebar and wire rod mills has been slightly on相关的主题文章:


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