Old alchemy gold price shocks seek breakthrough crude oil roller coaster eventually


Xie Gold: gold price volatility to seek a breakthrough oil roller coaster end Yang received the client view the latest market spot gold continues to rebound in the 1260 into a narrow consolidation state, although more than 5 points in the volatility has been, but these two days has been maintained in the range of 1260-1250, and gold is different while other products is like a raging fire the news, crude oil may be relatively concentrated, leading to the recent fall a lot, while the dollar did not significantly callback but continue to maintain the upward trend, Thursday is the highest dollar index rose to 98.12, a record high since March 10th. The market is now more confident of the momentum of economic growth in the United States, and in the morning of the Fed meeting minutes, the wording also changed to "relatively fast", passing the strong signal that they tend to increase interest rates in December. Before the fundamentals of the second half of this year the old Xie also mentioned the three major concerns, and influenced the U.S. presidential election on the market is very important, global investors will focus on the U.S. presidential election, because the new president will affect domestic economic policy and international issues and the stability of the financial market. If Trump comes to power, most people think that will lead to gold hedge boom, and in fact, Hilary came to power, in fact, there will be a stimulating factor of gold upward. But the market is never looking at the results, but looking at expectations, so the trend of the election will also affect the price fluctuations of major commodity markets. While in Europe, the UK may hard back in Europe last week has triggered a sharp fall in sterling, Deutsche Bank shares fell to its default may increase, and the Bank of Italy raised investor anxiety, these will aggravate the European banking system risk, and even lead to financial crisis. The World Gold Council data show that gold demand increased by 15% in the two quarter of this year, mainly driven by central bank [micro-blog] gold purchase and gold ETFs fund. At present, gold prices are still in the callback, due to the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to strengthen, as well as other global central bank tightening monetary policy. According to the CME interest rate forecasting tool, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 65.1% in December. On the whole, gold will form a long-term bottom and will have a rise of $150. So it’s almost obvious that it’s the fall that will bring opportunities for future growth, and we don’t believe it will be too far away. Gold this week week basically maintained within a narrow range, rise and fall more slowly, but you can see that the rebound trend has slowed down, as the old Xie gold yesterday article wrote that the market is most concerned about is currently waiting for a rebound bottoming or continue to dip after the shock? For short-term trends, the old alchemy believes that the price of gold or rebound demand, after the breakthrough of resistance this week after 1265 or will usher in a certain rebound space. But for the medium term, the interest rate does not fall before it is difficult to rise, even will dip, a lot of friends concerned about the investment Senji mark or touched upon in interest rates, but the interest rate, the price of gold or will once again rebound to form a certain market continues to rebound. In the intraday market, the two points we need to pay attention to are the 1247 below, which is our multi stop stop this week, and the top concern is that.

老谢炼金:金价震荡寻求突破 原油过山车终收阳 客户端 查看最新行情   现货黄金在反弹1260之后继续陷入窄幅盘整状态,虽然说5个点以上的波动一直都有,但是这两天一直维持在1260-1250区间,和黄金不同的是其他产品则是如火如荼,原油消息可能相对集中,导致最近回落了不少,而美元也并没有明显的回调而是继续保持上行趋势,周四美元指数最高更是上涨至98.12,创3月10日以来新高。市场如今对美国经济增长的动能更有信心,而在周四凌晨美联储会议纪要中,措辞也改为“相对较快”,就传递出他们倾向于12月加息的强烈信号。   今年下半年的基本面之前老谢炼金也提到过需要关注的三大重点,而当下美国大选对市场影响非常重要,全球投资者都将目光集中在美国大选上,因为新总统将影响国内经济政策、国际问题以及金融市场稳定。如果特朗普上台则大多数人认为会引发黄金避险热潮,而其实希拉里上台的话其实也会存在刺激黄金上行的因素。但是市场的永远不是看结果而是看预期,所以大选的走向也会影响到各大商品市场的价格波动。而欧洲方面,英国可能“硬退欧”已经引发上周英镑暴跌,德意志银行股价暴跌使其违约可能大增,而且意大利银行又引发投资者焦虑,这些都将加剧欧洲银行系统风险,甚至引发金融危机。世界黄金协会的数据显示,今年二季度,黄金需求增加了15%,主要受央行[微博]购金和黄金ETFs基金的推动。目前金价仍处于回调之中,因美联储加息预期走强,以及全球其他央行收紧货币政策。据CME利率预测工具,美联储12月加息的概率达到了65.1%。综合来看,黄金将形成一个长期底部,将有150美元的上涨空间。因此几乎可以很明显的看出,正是有了这样的下跌才会为将来的上涨带来机会,我们相信这样的机会也不会太远。   黄金本周周内基本维持窄幅震荡,上涨和下跌都较为平缓,但可以看到的是,反弹趋势已经有所放缓,正如笔者老谢炼金昨天文章写到的,市场最为关注的是目前是筑底等待反弹还是震荡之后继续探底?对于短期趋势而言,老谢炼金认为金价或存在反弹需求,上方突破本周阻力1265之后或将迎来一定的反弹空间。但对于中期而言,加息没有落地之前很难大涨,甚至仍将探底,很多投资朋友关注的千二关口或在加息前有所触及,但加息之后,金价或将再次触底反弹形成一定的反弹延续行情。日内行情方面,大家需要关注的两个点位一是下方的1247,这是我们本周的多单止损位,而上方关注的是1265,这是我们最为关键的阻力位,在行情突破这两个位置之前,基本维持区间内操作就可以了,今天周五,预计突破的概率也是有的,毕竟仍有多位美联储官员将讲话,其中还包括了耶伦,如突破后可顺势进场,但利润也无需看的过大,毕竟临近周末,最好还是维持空仓过周末比较好,祝大家投资愉快!   现货黄金部分做单点位:   1、仍先维持1250-1263区间操作,止损4个点,目标看6-7个点即可;   2、上方如强势突破1265可回踩1260-1258一线做多,止损1255,目标上看1268-1270一线;   3、下方如跌破1247反弹1250-1252一线做空,止损1255,目标下看1242-1240一线。   整理下本周的原油市场数据:周四(10月13日)凌晨公布的API数据显示,截至10月7日当周,美国API原油库存意外大增268.9万桶,预期值为增加28.6万桶,前值为减少755.5万桶。稍早的EIA月报显示,下调2017年美油价格预期至49.99美元 桶,此前为50.58美元 桶;但提高了2016年美油价格预期至42.78美元 桶,此前为为41.92美元 桶。继昨晚API录得的增幅高于预期后,今晚EIA数据甚至更加超出预期,北京时间周四(10月13日)晚23:00,美国能源信息署(EIA)公布的截至10月7日当周原油库存录得增加490万桶,预期值为增加65万桶,前值为减少297.6万桶。原油库存结束连续五周的下滑趋势,刷新4月以来的最大增幅,并且是连续6周以来首次录得上涨。整体来看API利空,月报利空,EIA也是利空,数据公布后,美布两油持续下跌,宁贵沥青最低4752点位。但之后油价不仅收回跌幅,并盘中录得反弹,美国上周东部海岸精炼油库存升至自2010年12月以来的最高位;而墨西哥湾沿岸地区精炼油库存降幅录得自2005年9月以来最大。且市场对于11月底的冻产仍抱有较高的预期,这也符合老谢炼金之前对于近期油价看好仍有反弹空间的预期。日内原油操作方面,仍可维持回踩做多的主思路,目前油价有再次向上试探51关口的迹象,在突破51之前,不太建议操作空单,可关注回踩50附近的支撑力度择机进场多单,而昨晚EIA库存公布初期油价下探49.3附近,那么该点位至49关口也作为日内重要支撑位,不跌破的话,对油价维持看涨。   原油部分做单点位:   1、下方回踩50.2-50一线做多,止损49.7,目标上看51-51.2一线;   2、上方突破51等待51.3-51.5一线做空,止损51.8,目标下看50.5-50.3一线;   3、下方如见49.3-49一线做多,止损48.8,目标上看50-50.2一线。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: