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Reuters survey the Fed’s interest rate hike in December increased substantially-www.777vk.com

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Reuters survey: the Fed rate hike in December increased probability of U.S. stock market center: exclusive national industry sector stocks, premarket after hours, ETF, real-time quotes Huitong warrants news network September 17th, according to a Reuters survey, on December the Federal Reserve Shengxi probability in the past month rose sharply, analysts believe that further rise is in even if inflation and weak wage growth. The rebound in inflation on Friday reinforces that expectation. Recently, several Federal Reserve officials said that the economy has almost ready to raise interest rates, the expected rise in interest rates in September greatly improved, but the Federal Reserve director Brainard (Lael  Brainard) speech earlier this week cautious attitude, many people surprised.     however, in the past week’s visit to more than 100 analysts, most people think the Fed will raise interest rates to 0.50-0.75% in the fourth quarter, with a median estimate of 70% in December. The odds were 57.5% last month, and the market was less than 40%. If the Fed did raise interest rates in December, it was one year before the last hike, highlighting the difficulty of even raising interest once, and the Fed’s original forecast in December of last year said it would raise interest rates four times this year. A series of worries has been a barrier to rising interest rates, including China’s economic slowdown, early market falls, and Britain’s elimination of europe. Many have already begun to predict that the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2016. But in August, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said that the reasons for interest rate hikes were strengthened, highlighting the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future. "Assuming there is no major change in the economic trend until then, the housing market, consumer spending and the labor market continue to grow steadily, which will be very sufficient reasons for the interest rate hike in December," said BMO  Capital  Markets economist Jennifer  Lee said. Median survey shows analysts believe that the Fed’s interest rate hike at 20-21 September meeting is about 25%, only slightly higher than the market trend reflected expectations, and in fact, when the prediction held this view only 6% of respondents. By contrast, the median interest rate hike in the fourth quarter is as high as 76%. Given that the Fed’s November policy review conference is only a few days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, if there is no action this month, then December is the only real option. According to the survey, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two times in 2017, raising interest rates to 1.00-1.25%. The Federal Reserve has different policies with other developed market central banks, especially the European Central Bank, which announced plans to expand asset purchases by the end of the year. Replied the 47 separate problems about 1/4 analysts, analysts said last month they increasingly believe the Fed interest rate rise this year, about 60% of the analysts say their views did not change, only seven analysts said not so sure that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. The United States in the second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) annual rate of Cong 路透调查:美联储12月加息概率大幅提升 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情   汇通网9月17日讯——一项路透调查显示,美联储于12月升息的几率在过去一个月大幅上升,分析师进一步确信升息在即,即便通胀和薪资增长疲软。而周五公布的通胀回升更是巩固了这一预期。   最近几名美联储官员表示,经济已差不多为迎接升息做好了准备,令9月升息的期望值大为提高,但美联储理事布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)本周稍早的讲话态度谨慎,让很多人意外。   不过,过去一周路透对逾100名分析师的访问中,多数人认为美联储第四季会升息至0.50-0.75%,预估中值显示12月升息几率为70%。   上月调查时这一几率为57.5%,市场行情显示的几率则不足40%。   若美联储真的在12月升息,距上次升息也有一年时间,凸显其哪怕升息一次都倍觉困难,而联储在去年12月的最初预测认为今年会升息四次。   一系列担忧成为升息的阻碍,包括中国经济放缓,年初市场大跌,以及英国脱欧等。   许多人已经开始预测,美联储在2016年根本就不会加息。但美联储主席耶伦在8月时表示,利率上调的理由增强,凸显了近期加息的可能性。   “假设现在到那时经济趋势没有重大变化,楼市、消费者支出及劳动力市场继续稳步增长,这些都将是12月加息非常充分的理由,”BMO Capital Markets经济学家Jennifer Lee称。   调查中值显示,分析师认为美联储在9月20-21日会议上加息的几率约为25%,仅比市场走势所反映的预期略高一点,而实际上在预测时持有这一看法的受访者仅有6%。   相比之下,第四季加息几率的中值高达76%。   鉴于美联储11月政策评估会议比美国总统大选只提前几天,如果本月没有行动,那么12月则是真正唯一的选择。   调查认为,美联储在2017年将再加息两次,将利率上调至1.00-1.25%。   美联储与其他发达市场央行的政策路劲迥异,尤其是欧洲央行年底前料宣布扩大资产购买计划。   47位回答单独问题的分析师中,约四分之一的分析师称他们过去一个月愈发相信美联储今年升息,约60%的分析师称他们的看法没有变化,只有七位分析师称不那么确信美联储今年会升息。   美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率为增长1.1%,低于预期,但美国经济增长可能增强,第三季料为成长2.8%。   尽管最近经济增长不稳定,但2017年底前美国经济季度增幅均值料维持在金融危机前的趋势增长率2.1-2.3%附近。从现在到2017年底的经济增长预估区间为1.2-3.9%。   调查显示,未来一年美国经济发生衰退的可能性为20%,预估区间为5%-55%。   调查还显示,美联储青睐的通胀指标–核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数在2017年底之前,都将低于美联储2%的通胀目标。低失业、经济增长和通胀疲弱,这些因素结合到一起让决策者感到困惑。 责任编辑:帅可聪相关的主题文章:


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