Wary of the sunk cost stocks do not blindly cover quilt after trap


Alert sunk cost trap: do not blindly cover the quilt after the stock of sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Hao Xuguang from the personality factors, people have the desire to avoid waste, unwilling to accept the previous cost wasted in. Stock investment, should avoid affected by the sunk cost trap once stuck, do not blindly cover. People make decisions on the current or future things, always too much to consider the historical cost that happened in the past and unable to recover the cost, once in a certain investment of money or time, will show a strong tendency to continue to invest. Continue to implement the current decision making under previous investment incentives. According to the standardization of decision-making, decision-making should consider the future income. Why some people into the stock market after the loss, not to suspend action but continue to increase investment? Sometimes that is wrong but not willing to terminate the decision? Why do some people buying a stock once stuck, no matter how future gains, will often buy more or more, called "share the cost"? "Low cost" is a ghost? This leads to the concept of sunk cost and sunk cost trap. Sunk cost (Sunk Cost) is the cost of the decision made in the past, and cannot be changed by any decision made in the present or in the future. These include the investment of time, energy, money, investment and so on, the so-called "Spilled water cannot be gathered up". Sunk cost trap is a kind of irrational behavior, which means that once people invest money or time in a certain area, they will show a great tendency to continue to invest. When people make decisions about the future or the future, they always consider the historical cost and the cost that can not be recovered in the past. According to the standardization of decision-making, decision-making should consider the future income. The famous scholar Arkes and Blumer1985 do a classic experiment, asked participants to answer: suppose you spent 100 yuan to buy a ticket to go skiing in Michigan weekend. After a few weeks and spent 50 yuan to buy a ticket to go skiing in Wisconsin this weekend, because you think skiing in Wisconsin will be better. But you suddenly found that these two tickets are bought on the same weekend, can not refund, can not be transferred. How to choose? In 61 subjects, 33 people choose to go to Michigan, 28 people choose to go to Wisconsin. That 54% of the subjects to give up more fun in Wisconsin. The reason is that Michigan is expensive. In fact, if you think skiing in Wisconsin will be better, that the more people go skiing in Wisconsin, but affected by the sunk cost trap, more and more people choose expensive and not necessarily "ski better" option. The experiment was not made in a real situation. Arkes and Blumer, in the same year, did an experiment in a real situation. The Ohio University theatre season tickets 15 yuan, full price ticket, 13 yuan, 7 yuan discount tickets. Question: which group goes to the theatre to see more? Through the inspection found 15 yuan ticket, full price tickets to see this group of theater most. Why? Up to the previous investment. Scholars study more than 1 thousand相关的主题文章: